LABOUR EURO-SAFEGUARDS CAMPAIGN
BULLETIN
JULY 1999
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON BRITAIN'S FUTURE OUTSIDE
THE SINGLE CURRENCY
1
. How many Currencies are there in the World? There are at least 180 independent currencies in the world today. Outside the European Union, there is not a single sovereign country which has plans to give up its own distinctive money. On the contrary, the first thing that any country does, on gaining independence, is to establish its own currency, as we have seen recently with the break up of the former Soviet Union. Countries with their own money are rich and poor, large and small. Some are open to the world and others are closed societies. Some are democratic and others authoritarian. Some, like Canada, are adjacent to very much larger - even dominant - neighbours. Many have an economy much smaller than Britain's, which now ranks fifth in the world. To argue, against this evidence, that we have no alternative but to join the euro is plain nonsense. It flies in the face of evidence from every quarter of the globe.
2.
What are the Advantages of having your own Currency? There is a simple reason why every independent country wants to have its own currency. It provides huge advantages. It enables choices to be made about taxation and expenditure policies, which otherwise have to be taken elsewhere. By changing the exchange rate, it is possible for any country with its own currency to ride through disruptive economic changes, whether caused by unexpected world events, different rates of inflation, or other unforeseeable events, without growth rates going down and unemployment rising. Above all, control over your own money and your own country are inseparable. No country can be a genuine democracy within its own borders without having its own currency. Once such control is lost, real power has gone somewhere else. This is why the Single Currency is not fundamentally an economic issue. It is about democracy and self government.3.
Would Investment in Britain be hit if we were not in the Single Currency? There is no evidence at all that investment in Britain would go down if we stayed outside the euro. Despite the fact that we were outside the Exchange Rate Mechanism during most of its existence, the proportion of Foreign direct investment coming to Britain was much higher during this period than to other EU countries - as it still is. Nor is likely that the City would be disadvantaged. The main strength of Britain's financial services industry lies in its flexibility, its responsiveness and its ability to adapt, none of which will change whether we are in the Single Currency or outside it.4.
Why is there then so much pressure to get us to join the Single Currency? The real reason why the Single Currency was established in the first place had little to do with economics. It had everything to do with politics. There are large numbers of people in powerful positions in the European Union who want to build a United States of Europe. They want to reduce the role of national governments to those of county councils, while power is concentrated in Brussels and Frankfurt. They see the establishment of the Single Currency as far the most effective way of doing this. For historical reasons, there may be more support for integration on the continent than there is in Britain, though there is plenty of opposition too. It is clear, however, that there is no majority in Britain for developments along these lines. This is why, although the Leader of the Conservative Party has acknowledged that there are major constitutional issues connected with the Single Currency, Labour and Lib Dem leaders still present it as just being about our economic interests, brushing the democratic issues under the carpet. This puts them in a false position, as the economic arguments for the Single Currency are remarkably weak.
5.
Is the Single Currency the right economic policy for the European Union?The only clear advantage for having a Single Currency in the EU is that the expense of changing money from one currency to another will disappear. The costs of the change over are very high, however, and it will take years to get them back. Apart from this, there are no unequivocal gains from the euro which could not be obtained in other ways, while there are very substantial economic disadvantages to having as large and disparate an area as the EU run with one currency. "One size fits all policies" do not work in countries with such different traditions and economies as those in the EU, as we are already seeing. If some areas do better than others - as will inevitably happen - at present there are no ways of transferring massive funds to those doing worse than the average, as happens within nation states. Because of language and cultural differences, labour mobility is heavily constrained, blocking off another way of dealing with this problem. Indeed the impact of these factors largely explains why past attempts at currency integration in the EU, with the Snake and the ERM in the 1970s and 1980s, led to such slow growth and high levels of unemployment.
6. Why is the case for Britain joining the Single Currency so weak?
If the economic case for the Single Currency in the context of the EU as a whole is far from well founded, Britain is particularly exposed because our economy differs radically from those on the continent. Much more of our trade is with countries outside the EU than is the case with other Member States. Our economy and in particular its business cycles are much more closely attuned to that of the USA than the rest of the EU. We have much greater investment flows both in and out, with a much larger proportion being with non EU countries. We are a net oil producer, whereas all other EU countries are net oil consumers. We have a different interest rate structure. Our tax levels are considerably lower than the EU average and our labour force is much more flexible, providing us - albeit at a heavy social cost - with a substantial competitive advantage, reflected in levels of unemployment half those on the continent.
7.
Would we be frozen out of all the important decisions if we were not in the Single Currency? We might have some more influence in the EU if we were in the Single Currency rather than outside it, but it is questionable how much. We would be one country out of fifteen, with probably more to join, often with interests conflicting with the others. Where votes count, we would therefore be liable to be outnumbered more than the average. But it many parts of the EU institutions, neither national nor popular votes are relevant at all. The European Central Bank, the European Court of Justice, and the Commission are all beyond the reach of effective democratic control. On the other hand, if we join the Single Currency, giving up our independent national status as euro-integration proceeds, we are likely to lose out heavily in other directions, surrendering much more influence in the world than we would gain within the EU. Where would we stand on defence and in NATO? What would happen to our role in the United Nations, the Commonwealth and the International Monetary Fund? Above all, in economic terms, where would we be if we were unable to control our own economy, particularly if competitive developments in the EU and elsewhere in the world led to us doing relatively poorly? In these circumstances are the British people really going to be expected to stand idly by, watching economic growth disappear, unemployment rise, and welfare services being slashed, accepting that nothing can be done about such developments?
8.
Is the Single Currency, in any event, really viable?In all the arguments about the pros and cons of the euro, one aspect which is not raised nearly as often as it should be is whether the project really is viable at all. The record of attempts over the years in many parts of the world to create single currencies, without complete political integration, is dismal. Almost without exception, they have eventually broken up. No doubt, the same pressures, sooner or later, will hit the euro. There is then a fair chance that one or more major countries will break away, and the Single Currency as we now know it will dissolve. It is more likely, however, in the medium term, that as the strains mount, there will be pressure from a different direction - towards massive transfers of taxation and spending powers to Brussels, to shore up the euro system and to ensure its continuation. Should this occur, peoples throughout the EU will lose even more control over their futures to the unelected bankers, bureaucrats and judges who largely run the EU. It seems extremely unlikely that this is the future that most of the electorates of Member States want, and even less probable that this is what the British would choose to see happening. This is why they need to realise now, while choices are still open, that the logic of events is overwhelmingly likely to push the future in this direction.
9.
Could Britain survive without joining the Single Currency?There is absolutely no doubt about the answer to this question. Of course we could. There is nothing "inevitable" about our joining the euro. We can choose whether to stay out or go in, and we should do so based on a rational consideration of the pros and cons, and not on irrational and loaded propaganda slogans about "missing trains". We need to judge whether our economic prospects are likely to be better in than out. Even if, on balance, there were persuasive economic arguments for joining the Single Currency - which we do not believe is the case - would the price to be paid in giving up our national sovereignty would be one worth paying? These are the crucial issues which the European Monetary Union debate is about.
10. What is now at stake?
There is huge pressure inside the EU to reduce the powers of the Member States and to expand the competence of the EU institutions. The Single Currency has been specifically created and cherished with this objective in mind. If we join, we will be voting to give up our national democratic institutions in favour of the bureaucratic and centralist EU structure, created, as its founders explicitly intended, to give power to trusted officials rather than elected politicians. This is why decisions about the Single Currency are so critically important. Whether we join or not will make a big difference to our economic future, almost certainly for the worse. This is not, however, the central issue. The real question is whether the British people have now so lost confidence in their ability to live successfully in a competitive world that they want to give up the self governing and accountable democracy, which they, perhaps more than any other nation, taught the rest of the world to adopt. Once the electorate realises that this is what is truly at stake, it is hard to believe that they will vote for it.
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Published by the Labour Euro-Safeguards Campaign
72 Albert Street, London, NW1 7NR
Tel: 0171-388 2259 * Fax: 0171-388 3454
E-mail: lesc@johnmills.co.uk * Website: http://www.lesc.org.uk