LABOUR EURO-SAFEGUARDS CAMPAIGN

BULLETIN JANUARY 1999

Ý

MORE QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON

THE SINGLE CURRENCY

 

Yes, there is one which is agreed by everyone. The introduction of the euro will result in reductions in the costs of changing money from one currency to another. But even the European Commission estimate that this benefit amounts to less than one half of one per cent of our national income, an estimate which most observers regard as being too high.

The costs of converting currencies does not, however, vanish completely. The euro would still have to be exchanged for currencies such as the dollar and the yen

 

The euro will still move up and down against the dollar and the yen, and its value can fluctuate just as much as any single European currency used to do ñ as has been shown in the short time since its launch.

 

3. Surely Britainís membership of the Single Currency is inevitable, so why donít we just get on with it?

Only death is inevitable. There is no magical tide of history which makes anything else inevitable. By their decisions and actions, people make history. In 1940, it seemed inevitable to any outside observer that Germany would win the war. They had conquered Europe in the space of months, inflicted a severe defeat on the British army in Europe, and Britain stood alone. Yet we changed the apparently inevitable course of history.

 

This is a strange argument, but one which pro-euro fanatics often use. On the one hand, they say the euro will make the European economies stronger and more prosperous than ever. Yet on the other, they say we will be punished by the Europeans if we stay out. But why should prosperous countries act like this? If the euro really does work in this way, there will be no need to take action against Britain, for simply being left out of this wondrous zone of prosperity will be punishment enough.

 

5. If we stay out of the euro, wonít we just lose our influence over decisions which are taken?

In many ways, the crucial decisions have already been taken. The European Central Bank, which will run the euro countriesí economic policies, has already been set up. The bankers have been appointed, and the rules under which it operates have been fixed. The Central Bank is independent, and its decisions cannot be altered by elected politicians.

 

6. But what about world bodies such as the International Monetary Fund, or meetings of world finance ministers? Wonít we lose our influence there?

This is the complete opposite of the truth. Britain is not a minor, medium-sized economic power. We have the fourth or fifth largest economy in the developed world. America, Japan and Germany are bigger, and we are about the same size as France.

Our government sits at these tables to represent us in our own right. We are too big to be ignored.

If we join the euro, our influence will be reduced. The Euro-fanatics want to eliminate all representation from individual countries, and to put in its place a Euro representative. We would lose our own, individual representation if we joined the euro.

 

There are good reasons why you are not told the whole truth about monetary unions. At its simplest, it means that the same currency - the euro - circulates across the whole Euro-zone. Britain is a monetary union, based on sterling. You can go into a shop and use sterling anywhere in Britain. With the euro, you could go anywhere in Western Europe and use the same money. This seems attractive.

But thereís a catch. In a monetary union, there is only one set of interest rates at any point in time. There are very small differences in rates as the banks and building societies compete for business, but these are tiny.

 

Yes it does. Interest rates have to be set according to what central bankers think is best for the monetary union as a whole. If this doesnít suit your own area, thatís tough. Thereís nothing you can do about it.

The Governor of the Bank of England caused a storm recently when he said interest rates had to stay high because of inflationary pressures in the South of England. But these high rates are causing job losses in the North.

In Euroland, there is a single rate for the whole of the monetary union countries. Because of a fear of inflation in, say, France or Germany, European interest rates could be set at a high level. Jobs would then be lost not just in a region but throughout the whole of the UK, even if Britain itself faced no inflationary threat.

 

Countries like France and Germany have been preparing for years to get ready for monetary union. The whole thrust of economic policy on the Continent in the last few years has been to get their economies ëreadyí for Monetary Union.

The fact is that the euro countries have been a disaster zone for jobs. Unemployment goes up and down over the course of the business cycle - the booms and recessions - just like in Britain and everywhere else. But in the European Union it goes up and down around an ever-rising trend. Unemployment in the EU was 5 million in 1979, 14 million in 1992 and now nearly 19 million. It is now falling slightly, but is still nearly 5 million higher than in 1992.

In Germany alone unemployment is almost as high as it was when Hitler came to power. Thatís what the dress rehearsal of monetary union has led to.

It hasnít happened in Britain. It hasnít happened in Norway - both countries which are unlikely to join the first wave and which havenít set their entire policies to ëgetting readyí for monetary union. Unemployment in Britain today is the same as it was back in 1979. In Europe it is 14 million higher.

 

Yes, they do. But so does everyone else, sometimes in a manner so spectacular that even the British would blush. In the Netherlands unemployment appears to be as low as it is in Britain. But 15 per cent of the Dutch workforce are now classified not as unemployed but as disabled. The true rate of Dutch unemployment is around 20 per cent, but in the official figures it appears as less than 7. In Germany, two million people are on temporary work schemes, whose sole purpose is to keep them off the unemployment register.

 

Yes, yes and yes again. The idea that the countries of the European Monetary Union are not planning political union as well is the most pernicious of all the myths peddled by the pro-euro fanatics in Britain.

Hereís what Gerhard Schröder, Germanyís new Chancellor, had to say in his address to the newly elected German Parliament on 10 November 1998: "The European Single Currency is but a stepping stone to a political union," and "We will only succeed in shaping a common Europe be developing further towards a political union."

The Germans want political union, the French want political union, the Italians want political union - and political union is what we will get if we join the euro. Our own Parliament will be reduced to the status of a rate-capped local council.

 

There are lots of scare stories around, particularly at a time of world economic crisis when everyone is cutting back investment.

But last year - the latest full figures available from the United Nations - investment by foreign companies in Britain rose and in both France and Germany it fell.

Britain was "the most popular location for foreign direct investment in the EU", according to the Financial Times on 10 November 1998. Indeed, the FT went on to say that Britain is one of the most popular locations in the whole world for investment from abroad.

In 1996, foreign companies invested £16 billion in Britain, and last year no less then £22 billion. So much for the stories that Britain is losing out because we are not joining the euro

___________________________________________________________________

 

Published by the Labour Euro-Safeguards Campaign

72 Albert Street, London, NW1 7NR

Tel: 0171-388 2259 * Fax: 0171-388 3454

E-mail: lesc@johnmills.co.uk * Website: http://www.lesc.org.uk